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Passion, Politics and Mitt
The confluence of my Independence Day posting on passion and my recent writing on the presidential candidates seems like they have come together. People who are not passionate about what they are doing especially in the public eye are deemed for failure. You want your political leaders to be passionate (and reasonable / practical etc).
I get the feeling that Mitt Romney is not passionate about being president (OUCH THAT WAS HARSH). I think he was passionate about working at Bain and making the Salt Lake City Olympics successful, but not this. What about Barack Obama? Well I will leave that for another day...but Mitt needs to show people his passion because in my view, he lacks it.
Amazing how people running for the highest office in the land and they lack passion.....
Romney...more bad news
So now it seems that Mr Romney is trailing BO in three key swing states (Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania). We all know that the Republican nominee needs to win Florida and Ohio to even have a shot at winning the POTUS. It is surprising that Mitt can not connect with people. I am not sure what it is specifically, but it is very odd to me. Some would point out his constant flip-flopping which may make people think that he doesn't stand for something. It is a relevant point, but many politicians "refine" their views over the years. Mitt does take it to a new level on certain things, but many politicians and leaders have gotten over that hump. I think this purely rests on MR's ability to translate his message to people and have them enthusiastic about voting for him.
I will keep hammering this message in my writing because it is important for everyone. The word is passion! Passion in politics during presidential elections is about VOTING for your person and NOT voting against the other person. People may hate BO, but they still have to passionate and want to fight for MR. You need those folks to get out, vote, campaign, donate etc. People VOTED for Ronald Reagan and not against Jimmy Carter....it is a lesson for MR because otherwise he will lose!
Compromise..NO WAY
Dick Durbin - longtime Democratic senator from Illinois: "Let me be honest with you ... in the next 100 days before the election, the political environment is not one for compromise and negotiation," the Illinois Democrat said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union," when asked about prospects for a debt agreement.
So forget that he is one the of most partisan senators on the hill, should we accept this answer from one of the most powerful people in our government. What ever side of the aisle people are one, this is not an acceptable answer! We need people who should be talking compromise and problem solving like the www.fixthedebt.org campaign by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson. How has a problem ever been fixed when people will not even talk about meeting in the middle.
As a citizen of this great nation, comments like this and the continued ignoring of our debt problems, make me think that Americans sometimes want to bury their heads in the sand and ignore this issue. Come on America, wake up and do not accept people on either side of the aisle who won't even discuss working this issue out..
Happy Olympic watching....
No Soup for you.......
In the famous Seinfeld episode, the Soup Nazi says "No Soup for you" to George Costanza. Its a classic episode and it reminded me of what the GDP numbers were today for our country. The economy is being held together by artificially low interest rates, government "stimulus" and the American people's overly consumptive needs. We like stuff and we never can get enough of it, even if we do not need it. With unemployment so high, I just do not understand why BO and MR dont understand how important it is to get people working again. The problem is that the jobs companies want to hire for, are not jobs alot of Americans are skilled in....hence the problem.
I guess we can lower our expectations and say that 2% growth is the new 4-5% growth.....isnt that exciting America...strive to be the best or just better than the other underachievers.....
Happy Friday!
Headline of the Day - "Companies Say 3 Million Unfilled Positions in Skill Crisis: Jobs"
So not only do we have 12-17% unemployment (if you count the people that have given up finding work) we actually have 3 million jobs awaiting people, but Americans do not have the skills to match up with the work...... This country really needs a revaluate our education system and where the jobs of the future will be......
Romney....waiting....waiting
Mitt Romney's campaign seems to be lost in the weeds. His message is not refined and his strategy is unclear. To use a sports analogy, he seems to be playing not to lose, instead of forging forward for a win. Scott Walker (Republican Gov of Wisconsin) this week by saying "People don’t just vote somebody out; they’ve got to vote somebody in.”.
Americans want people with passion and who push forward with a clear vision for this country. Whether I agreed with Barack Obama in 2008, he had a clear agenda for what he stood and pushed that agenda to victory. On the other hand, Mr Romney seems ok with letting other people define him and he is not fighting back. His message is weak and to be honest I am having a hard time getting behind him. I am sure this will change during the convention where focus on the race will be more prominent, but I am believer that you are defined by how you act all the time. People who want something, do not allow themselves to be lax or defined just because its summer or whatever the reason maybe.
Mitt Romney has a huge opportunity to be POTUS....but can you tell that he really wants to be........I have my doubts!
European progress.....or the bailout
As we approach the end of July 2012, the US stock market is on pins and needles in relation to the European sovereign debt crisis. Europe has never fully resolved Greece and behind is a traffic jam of countries that have issues with ballooning debt, high unemployment and large government spending. Spain is probably next in line to get their bailout finalized. Since each country in Europe is a fiscal equal (sorry that just refers to Germany), this problem has to be dealt holistically. Germany will have to lead this process and up to now, they have refused to do so for many reasons including why should they pay for other countries poor fiscal management.... .... Well then you never should have joined the Euro??? (that is crying over spilled milk)
Germany will need to decide whether they want to break the Euro and move on, creating a possible waterfall of countries defaulting or they will work with the ECB and create a "bailout" for these countries. I believe that the second is the best option for the current time frame, but I do not believe that the Euro can survive forever with most countries spending so much more than they take in. This issue is not just about austerity, but about creating an economic environment that fosters growth of the economy and job market. You can give people healthcare and lots of government perks, but eventually the well will run dry and that is where Greece, Spain, Italy..........are right now.
Germany and the ECB will have to make major decisions very soon and I hope, they do not decide what the US has.....keep spending and see how far we can get to the edge of the cliff.
Top 2% or 3% or 5%....
So what is rich? I guess that is kind of a loaded question, but seems like that everyone has their own opinion. It's a nice topic to discuss with relation to taxes and people paying their "fair" share but let's delve a little deeper. I am ok with politicians and other leaders discussing how we balance the budget, but the way they discuss the "rich" makes me feel like they really don't like the people who pay most of the taxes. I am sure someone who lives in the NYC area doesn't feel rich making 200k. You may not like hearing that but it is the truth. Also we can not balance the budget jus by taxing the rich people. That is the factual truth so why do they keep harping on it....because it is easy to tax the rich and say they are bad and have too much money.
To be clear, I am for an overhaul of the whole tax system which will result in more revenues for the government and a fairer system. But why does the political discourse have to be so negative about this. Why can we not praise the success of people and have them discuss the best way to move forward.
I am sorry, but I know the budget needs to be balanced but let's stop being so negative about people who have succeeded. If I was cynical, I would say that the left has nothing good to talk about so they blast he rich, but that is for another day...
Enjoy your Monday....
Housing Market woes.....
The housing market has never truly been cleansed of the bad loans because so many people are under water in their mortgages and the banks will not let them renegotiate their principal balance. This creates people who either:
- Default on their loan and will be foreclosed on because they can not pay their mortgage
- Can not sell their house because they can not repay their loan balance and they will continue to pay a mortgage that is outsized to the value of their house.
These are all bad things for the housing market.
Most people buying houses now are people who have money ("rich") or have paid down their loan balance. Currently there are very high lending standards for most people to get loans OR people are getting FHA loans which require 3% down. This was the same issue we faced back in the day with Fannie and Freddie. The latter is something keeping the housing market afloat in my view because most people do not have the cash to make a huge down payment.
How this all comes together is that the housing market has recovered to an extent, but it is still very fragile and that an increase in interest rates or a continuing lackluster recovery could take us backwards very quickly.
I think this issue should be discussed honestly. As Americans, we can not always have everything we want. Just remember the days when our parents and grandparents saved and saved for a 20 or 30 percent down payment. We are always in need of immediate gratification and maybe buying a house when you do not have the money is not a good thing....more to come.
Fed to the rescue.....maybe not
Well after Ben Bernanke spoke to Congress yesterday, I think we really think about what he said. The see through of this testimony is that the Fed is frustrated with the growth of the economy and is hesitant to introduce more monetary easing into a system that is flush with liquidity. I am not an economist, but the economy continues to crawl along at a tepid pace and is not growing fast enough to get us back on track. I think we all need to realize that:
- With a presidential election
- Slow growth
- Large deficits
- Uncertain tax policy
.....that is not exactly the best environment for growth. ...
We also should realize that the housing market has never been cleansed of all the bad loans and most people getting mortgages right now at these very low rates are not the people with the bad mortgages and the folks under water in their mortgage.
Again this economy is struggling and our leaders should be meeting everyday to fix this instead of partisan bickering...
Mitt Romney - Long way to go
Mitt Romney is running a bad campaign. I really do not understand what he truly stands for and what his main ideas are. To me, he has no identity and that really hurts him against BO and the machine that is attacking him. I like Mitt as a person and he seems to be a great family man. He has been very successful, but so are so many people in the US. What defines people running for POTUS is their ability to inspire greatness from everyone. Barack Obama promised that in 2008, but really has not come through on bringing everyone together and in my opinion he has divided this country even more.
We need greatness to solve our issues and Mitt has a LONGGGGG way to go....
Now this is just not right Mr Obama..
A good friend sent me this phrase this morning and I said to myself, who the heck said this? "If you’ve got a business -- you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen" - POTUS Mr Barack Obama
Some may say he was taken out of context or that he meant something else, but this statement is what is so wrong with this President. How can he say that to the millions of people who risked their life savings and other things to start and create businesses. Yes we understand that the government helps folks start some business etc, but why would say it like that and also it is no the reality of how businesses get started.
We are an upwardly mobile society where small businesses power job growth. How do you inspire people to create jobs, take risks and to prosper when your view is that it has nothing to do with them? Such an ignorant statement......
Happy Monday....
Both Presidential Candidates...acting so small
I generally would save this until Monday morning but I couldn't. Are both BO and MR really running for POTUS or just like the Alpha of their fraternity? This country is going off the fiscal cliff and these guys are arguing about Bain Capital, tax returns, and such small issues. The morning news programs were filled with people yammering about tax breaks for middle class etc. WE ARE BROKE!! Can we have an honest conversation about these policies or maybe one of these candidates can talk about these issues like adults?
This will be a short post and I will expand on this later in the week, but I just had to write this.......come on guys....lets grow up and lead this country!
As we head to the weekend...
As we head into the weekend, let us try to remember that the future of this country is built on the financial stability of our nation. Without being sound financially, we are at the mercy of other nations similar to what is happening to Europe right now , but on a much larger scale. I think we all agree that solving this fiscal crisis (see my morning post) and creating financial stability should be the number one priority of everyone in the government right now....but why isnt it? Because it is hard work, it takes focus and non partisan solutions. I just hope that our leaders realize that we do not want to get so close to the cliff that one false step and we fall off....
Quick read.....but very important
http://crfb.org/blogs/bowles-and-simpson-announce-campaign-fix-debt-cnbcs-squawkbox CEOs......unite
While the national net public debt is worrisome today at over $11tn (73 per cent of gross domestic product), it will become an unconscionable $21tn (about 85 per cent of GDP) in 10 years, according to the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Our income tax system is erratic and uncompetitive and our entitlement spending commitments will crush the system as the baby boomer generation retires.
The lack of political will to address our debt problem creates significant uncertainty for companies making investment and hiring decisions. Without resolution, it could doom us to five years of 2 per cent real GDP growth and 8 per cent unemployment – or even worse: another financial crisis. I agree with those who stress that the government must do more to secure our short-term recovery. However, it is not only possible but essential to preserve a fragile recovery while reducing significantly the US’s longer term debt profile.
The problem can be addressed in one of two ways. The first is proactively and thoughtfully, the way a great nation does. The second is to wait until the bond market forces us to do it. This is not just a Wall Street problem. If 10-year US Treasury bond yields hit 7 per cent, home mortgage rates will reach 10 per cent and car loans will hit 13 per cent. That’s a Main Street problem.
The solution must involve a vastly simplified tax system that yields greater receipts, and vastly simplified less costly Medicare and Medicaid programmes.
There is no time to waste. As we approach the end of the year, we get closer to the edge of the “fiscal cliff”. If there is no political deal, the US will face a triple witching hour of automatically triggered spending cuts, the expiry of tax cuts, and a failure to raise the debt ceiling. We all saw what happened during the last debt ceiling “discussion”. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same dysfunctional process or another agreement to “kick the can down the road”, as they say in Washington.
CEOs can no longer stand on the sidelines. We need to ensure debt resolution is a core part of the presidential election campaign.
One of the three televised presidential debates should focus exclusively on debt, using an agreed baseline of fiscal numbers. This debt debate should be simple, focused and allow both candidates to explain their visions for the future based on the evidence. It would allow the candidates to “Reaganise” their plans: speaking simply and holistically about the magnitude of the issue and not just “hyperbolising” about tax increases and benefits cuts. The debate should inform rather than polarise, capturing the importance of the debt issue for the voter.
Markets will not wait for our political system to get its act together. The crisis may not wait for the elections either. If the bond market herd moves, it’s too late. We cannot be complicit in the political silence about our biggest economic issue. US CEOs should do five things to put pressure on Washington.
First, bring up the issue at every discussion with a politician. Second, bring it up in every external speech. Third, educate your employees and encourage them to contact their congressional representatives. Fourth, advocate for the Debt Debate. Fifth, support the Campaign to Fix the Debt, directed by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, who co-led a bipartisan commission on the topic.
Many people wonder if the US’s time has passed and whether we have lost the political will to compete. I don’t believe that and neither do most US CEOs. But there isn’t a moment to lose: now is the time to speak up.
The writer is the chief executive of Honeywell
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bda5a264-cb50-11e1-b896-00144feabdc0.html#axzz20ViRnrDI
Penn State.....Stunning
The Penn State /Jerry Sandusky scandal is obviously a black eye on the university, the staff and of course Joe Paterno. When the scandal first broke, my first reaction was not to blame Paterno, but say "he reported it to the sr staff and that was sufficient". In Mitt Romney style (sorry if that hurts some folks), I have done a 180 on this topic. After reading the summary points from the Louis Freeh report today, I am utterly appalled at the lack of follow-up and understanding that the university and Paterno showed about this case. Child molestation and abuse is one of the heinous crimes you can commit. Nothing to me is more cowardly than to hurt someone who can not defend themselves. Any allegation should be fully investigated especially when there were so many red flags.
The whole topic makes me sick. As a young teen and adult, I thought Joe P and Penn State was such an honorable program. I am not saying Joe P was a horrible person for his whole life, but you are judged sometimes by your worst mistake even if you lived a very honorable life......
California dreaming...i think
As San Bernardino, CA filed for bankruptcy today and it became the third one to do so (Vallejo and Stockton were the others), I can not help think, what is happening to this state of such endless hopes, dreams and beauty. I recently visited Northern California and it is one of the most beautiful places in the world and an amazing place to live. The climate is great and within 2-3 hours of San Francisco you can be in wine country, Big Sur or Lake Tahoe. I know there are earthquakes and wildfires but every place in the world has some risk where the place is amazing to live.
That being said....the state is going bankrupt and to hide their issues they cram down mandates and tax issues on the municipalities. That is why you are starting to see certain cities who were crushed the real estate collapse and the weak economy go bankrupt. I actually think this is a good thing as bankruptcy is far from ideal, but it should result in a cleansing of the system. The real issue here is that the most populous state in the union and the 8th largest economy in the world (yes is that big) is in dire financial straits and their government is a bureaucratic nightmare. They continue to raise taxes on the wealthy and the middle class (sales tax highest in the nation) and refuse to cut spending to create a more stable financial future.
It is just sad that a state that is one of the most beautiful and wealthiest places on Earth, can not get their house in order. I still want to move their one day and I wont give up on my California dreaming.....but it needs to get better there before my dreams come true!
Fed - More Stimulus??? More wine for all!!!!
The call for more Fed stimulus is like watching Game of Thrones when one of the many kings or lords states "more wine for all". Well of course we would love more wine, but is that really a good idea when we are running out of it? How much more can the Fed do? I am sure they can do more, but at some point, lower rates, buying bonds and all of the other tools in their arsenal doesn't fix the problem with this economy. The economy has never fully recovered from the financial crisis and it shows in the job market and the GDP numbers. The only way to get the economy started is to grow GDP and when that is anemic and you are spending too much, it is a recipe for disaster.
One may point that out that we have no choice. I take a more balanced approach and offer solutions that balance growth, deficit reduction and spending to keep the economy running. The Fed has pretty much bought 2 trillion (yes TRILLION) of government bonds to keep rates low and helps the government maintain a lower interest rate on the debt they owe. At some point the wine bottles are empty and interest rates will rise. If the economy is not on solid footing, then this will be a real problem!
The main point here is that we need to Fed, our leaders and president to work together to fix this and not just use rhetoric on twitter and websites all day. If you worked for a larger company, you wouldn't accept this and neither should we. This is not an easy problem to solve, but just asking the Fed for more wine, when the bar is almost out, is not a good solution....
Bobby D! What happened..oh I know
So it took over a week for Barclay's CEO Bob Diamond to resign from his job.....WELL THANK GOD!! I am a free market, capitalist but this is how it works. You mess up (not just this once Bobby) and you get canned. Barclay's would be just a middle tier investment bank if its wasnt for the Lehman collapse and subsequent purchase, but all is fair in love and war. I think the whole financial industry needs to wake up and realize that people don't like them and you will ALWAYS GET CAUGHT!
I truly believe that there is a huge benefit to the capital markets these firms provide, but it just seems like every month there is a scandal or something that makes everyone look so bad.